The coastal premium was understated.
FHFA's May 2026 county-level HPI release shows Camden and Glynn counties running 4.1% Q/Q — faster than we modeled three weeks ago in The Coast Is Moving. Here's what changed and what it means for the insurance pivot we're tracking.
When we published The Coast Is Moving in early May, we modeled coastal-Georgia price appreciation at roughly 2.6% Q/Q across Camden, Glynn, McIntosh, Bryan, and Chatham — derived from the FHFA Q1 2026 release plus an extrapolation from the previous four quarters' trend.
The FHFA May 2026 release (out last Tuesday) shows the actual Q2 number running closer to 4.1% Q/Q in Camden and Glynn specifically, with Bryan at 3.4% and Chatham, the largest by population, holding closer to 2.1%. That is a meaningful divergence at the county level — and the divergence concentrates in the two counties receiving the highest per-household FL inflow.
Where we missed.
Two things drove the miss. First, our trend extrapolation used four quarters of data — too short to catch the inflection that started in Q4 2025 once FL Citizens Insurance announced its second consecutive rate increase. Second, we under-weighted Camden specifically; St. Marys is now attracting buyers from St. Augustine in a pattern that didn't exist in the prior cycle.
The next thing we're watching: the insurance pivot. If GA coastal premiums begin tracking FL hardening (early signs suggest yes), the structural pressure we documented becomes self-reinforcing — the same insurance dynamic that pushed people out of Florida begins to operate on the destinations they chose. That is the next episode.
If you have ground truth from Camden, Glynn, or Bryan — local realtors, planning staff, insurance brokers — write to hello@infera.studio. We're collecting the field signal that doesn't show up in HPI for another two quarters.